2020 National Housing Market Overview
• Home price appreciation will flatten, with a forecasted increase of 0.8 percent
• Inventory will remain constrained, especially at entry-level prices
• Mortgage rates are likely to bump up to 3.88 percent by the end of the year
• Tight inventory and rising mortgage rates will lead to decreasing sales
• Buyers will continue to seek affordable housing
Supply and Demand
At the start of 2019, 2-out-of-3 national markets were seeing inventory growth. At year’s end, only 1-in-10 were seeing growth. In 2020, the market will continue to struggle with an inadequate supply of homes to meet buyer demand, and this inventory shortage has the potential to reach a historic low level. Nationally, the luxury market is cooling and builders are expected to shift to midlevel pricing. According to Matthew Gardner, economist, builders aren’t keeping up with demand for new housing stock because costs associated with land, labor, materials, and governmental regulation, are all increasing. “Twenty-five cents of every dollar spent on home construction is regulatory costs,” says Gardner. Overall buyer demand will remain very robust, particularly at the entry level. As a group, Millennials (born 1981-1997) will account for more than half of all mortgage originations in 2020.
At the national level, prices are estimated to tick up only 0.8 percent. In northern Colorado, analysts predict an annual average price growth close to the historic average of 5.5 percent due to continued in-migration and job growth exceeding many areas of the nation.
Over the past decade, demand for downtown living increased, driven by the
desire of Millennials for proximity and lifestyle amenities. As Millennials mature and start families, they are making a noticeable move toward affordable housing. The desire for affordability will continue in 2020, fueled also by Baby Boomers retiring and seeking sunnier weather, lower taxes and a lower cost of living.
Compared to recent years, Buyers have less competition and more leverage. First-time buyers will continue to struggle with affordability, even with favorable mortgage rates, as entry-level inventory remains constrained.
Economist Matthew Gardner says 36.8 percent of homeowners in Larimer County and 29.5 percent of homeowners in Weld County have equity in excess of 50 percent of their home values. When these homeowners become move-up buyers, they acquire homes with more of the features they want without increasing their mortgage payment, and add inventory to the market with their home sale. First-time investors will use home equity or savings to buy rental
Flattening price growth and slowing activity will require patience and thoughtful pricing on the part of sellers. Nationally, sellers of homes priced for entry-level buyers can expect the market to remain competitive and prices to stay firm. At the upper end of the price range, properties will take longer to sell, and incentives will become more common. Overall, homes that are prepared for the market and priced correctly will reap the benefits.
How can this year’s market opportunities support your real estate
goals? Give me a call and let’s discuss your options!
Source: Loveland Reporter Herald, REALTOR.com