Buying A New Home Archives - Fort Collins Homes

Commercial And Residential Real Estate Continues To Ride The Tailwinds

Both the residential and commercial markets in Northern Colorado are robust according to industry experts, despite the headwinds of higher interest rates, a potential recession and changes in how Americans work.

Residential
The residential market experienced upheaval in the past several years with growth during the pandemic followed by a dip starting in 2022 as interest rates ticked up.

Longmont and Johnstown were among the communities topping the charts for sales over the past couple of years. Median prices are rising but not at the previous rate of growth.

The Northern Colorado population continues to grow. By 2050, the Weld County population is forecast to reach 610,000 people and the estimate for Larimer County is 495,000 people. That means more homes will be needed.

Key points:
• Inventories will remain low, but the number of potential buyers has declined because of interest rates. Homeowners with mortgage rates below current market rates are reluctant to move.
• Builders are not keeping up with demand, even though newly built homes are selling a bit slower compared to 2021 and 2022.
• Home appreciation is expected to be flat or see a slight increase.
• Inflation will taper off.
• If a recession happens, it will be a slowdown instead of a full-fledged recession.
• The market is normalizing compared to recent years that were epitomized by “rushes”. Since 2020, 75% of the people who bought houses express “buyers remorse” which could result in increased sales activity as people attempt to correct their situations.

Commercial
In comparison, the commercial market in Northern Colorado remains better than most.

Short-term interest rates, which jumped from 3% to 7.5% in a short period of time, affected construction loans and likely caused some projects to be delayed. As rates begin to level off, they will remain manageable at about 5%.

Compared to the prior year, retail commercial properties have recovered fairly well with supply and demand in balance. Fort Collins retail has completely recovered from the pandemic, and Greeley has almost recovered. Overall along the Front Range, construction of new retail is low.

The office market is the segment in most distress since the pandemic forced many office workers to move home. Nationwide, the return-to-office rate has been about 50%.

Since Northern Colorado doesn’t have as many large corporate offices as found in Denver, its vacancy rates have been lower.

Larimer office vacancies are at 5.7% and Weld’s vacancy rates are at 7.6%, compared with 15.4% in Denver.

The bright spot in commercial real estate, like last year, has been industrial and warehouse uses. Industrial rental rates are growing 4% in Weld County and 6% in Larimer, and everything that’s been built is being absorbed.

By comparison, and taking Amazon distribution center in Loveland out of the equation, industrial is seeing five times more demand than office and retail.

Call me to discuss your future ideas about buying and selling!

Source: bizwest.com

FHA Borrowers Will Pay Reduced Mortgage Insurance Premiums

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On February 22, 2023, the Department of Housing and Urban Development released details of a long-anticipated plan to reduce the annual MIP (mortgage insurance premiums) that are currently charged to FHA borrowers by 30 Basis Points (0.3% of the loan balance).

The FHA mortgage insurance premium is the monthly fee homeowners pay to insure their mortgages. The fee is calculated as a percentage of the loan amount and paid in addition to the monthly principal and interest payments.

The annual FHA mortgage insurance premium will reduce from 0.85% to 0.55% for most new borrowers.

The National Association of REALTORS® applauded HUDs move to reduce the MIP for Federal Housing Administration loans, saying the financial relief will help more homeowners and buyers weather affordability challenges, and potentially save borrowers with FHA-backed mortgages hundreds of dollars a year.

FHA loans offer down payment options as low as 3.5% to first-time and low- to moderate-income home buyers. Eighty percent of FHA borrowers are first-timers, and more than 25% are minorities.

Homeownership is currently the principal source of wealth creation for most American households, but due to a nationwide shortfall in the supply of affordable homes, first-time homebuyers have struggled in recent years to achieve homeownership.

FHA loans offer a small down payment and more flexible underwriting, enabling credit worthy borrowers to begin building wealth through homeownership earlier than they might otherwise.

National Association of REALTORS President Kenny Parcell said in a statement: “Mortgage rates have doubled over the past year, and home prices have increased more than 30% in some counties. In this competitive market, new and low- to moderate-income buyers are often left behind.”

With a $400,000 FHA-insured mortgage, the MIP reduction could save a borrower approximately $1200 in the first year of homeownership.

The MIP reduction is the result of several factors: an improvement in the credit quality of borrowers in the FHA mortgage portfolio, home price appreciation, and significant refinance volume. As a result, the FHA’s mortgage insurance fund has seen gains in its capital reserves.

The FHA mortgage insurance premium reduction became effective in March, 2023.

Find more details about the FHA MIP reduction and savings on page 2 this month’s newsletter!

Contact me about specific loan programs for first time homebuyers available to you or someone you know!

Source: nar.realtor/magazine, nationalmortgageprofessional.com, https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/02222023-fha-mortgage-insurance

Understanding The Federal Reserve Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.75 percentage point for the fourth time in early November, marking an unprecedented pace of rate hikes.

The benchmark short-term borrowing rate has been raised six times this year in an effort to cool down inflation, which is still near 40-year highs and causing most consumers to feel increasingly cash strapped.

The Fed noted in a policy statement that the “cumulative” impact of its hikes are being considered relative to determining future rate increases. Economists are hoping this
signals plans to “step-down” the pace of increases going forward, which could mean a half point hike at the December 13-14 meeting and then a few smaller increases in 2023.

What The Federal Funds Rate Means To You
The federal funds rate, which is set by the central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers
pay, the Fed’s decisions affect the borrowing and saving rates they see every day.

By raising rates, the Fed makes it more costly to use financing, causing people to borrow and spend less, effectively pumping the brakes on the economy and slowing down the pace of price increases.

“Unfortunately, the economy will slow much faster than inflation, so we’ll feel the pain well before we see any gain,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate.com’s chief financial analyst.

Already, “mortgage rates have rocketed to 16-year highs, home equity lines of credit are the highest in 14 years, and car loan rates are at 11-year highs,” said McBride.

How Higher Rates Affect Borrowers
Even though 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, anyone shopping for a home has lost considerable purchasing power in part because of inflation and the Fed’s rate hikes.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Comparison For A $300,000 Loan
Dec 2021 Nov 2022
Rate / Payment Rate / Payment
3.11% / $1,283 7.08% / $2,012
That’s an extra $729 a month, an increase of $8,748 per year, and $262,440 more over the lifetime of the loan, according to LendingTree.

The increase in mortgage rates since the start of 2022 has the same impact on affordability as a 35% increase in home prices, according to McBride’s analysis.
“If you had been approved for a $300,000 mortgage in the beginning of the year, that’s the equivalent of less than $200,000 today.”

Interest rates for adjustable rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit are pegged to the prime rate, and will also eventually increase. Most ARMs adjust once a year, but a HELOC adjusts right away.

Meanwhile, consider boosting your emergency savings since savings rates have also increased. Sleep better at night knowing you have some money tucked away just in case.

Call me to discuss your options for a refinance or financing your next home!
Source: www.cnbc.com

Understanding Inflation and Mortgage Rates

This year, inflation reached a high not seen in forty years. The average consumer felt
the pinch at the gas pump and in the grocery store. It has also impacted the ability
of some buyers to save money to buy a home.

When the inflation rate was higher than expected in late summer, concerns about
recession were fueled, prompting the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the Federal
Funds Rate in late September.

Fortune magazine explains:
“As the Federal Reserve moved into inflation-fighting mode, financial markets quickly put
upward pressure on mortgage rates. Those elevated mortgage rates … coupled with skyhigh home prices, threw cold water onto the housing boom.”

The Rise of Mortgage Rates
In light of growing economic pressures, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage
recently surpassed 6% for the first time in well over a decade.

The mortgage rate increases this year are the big reason buyer demand has pulled
back in recent months. As rates rose, so did the cost of buying a home and some
buyers were priced out of the market.

Looking Ahead
The relationship between inflation and mortgage rates is simple.

When inflation is low, mortgage rates tend to be lower. When inflation is high, rates
tend to be higher.

Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, commented:

“Mortgage rates remained volatile due to the tug of war between inflationary pressures and
a clear slowdown in economic growth. The high uncertainty surrounding inflation and
other factors will likely cause rates to remain variable…”

Bottom Line
Rising inflation and higher mortgage rates have had a clear impact on housing.
Contact me for insights on the latest trends in the housing market and what they
mean for you.

www.keepingcurrentmatters.com

Signs of Market Easing

While inflation, interest rates and talk of a global recession have real estate markets in flux, there are also signs of market easing.

Affordability
Lawrence Yun, National Association of REALTORS® chief economist, recently testified on Capitol Hill concerning the current real estate market. Yun’s main points included:
• The inventory crunch will continue to chip away at affordability and sideline more buyers.
• Though growth in home prices is slowing, a nationwide decline is unlikely.
• While the potential for weaker sales may help increase housing inventory in some markets, it won’t be enough to ease affordability constraints.

Research commissioned by the National Association of REALTORS® indicates a national deficit of 6 million housing units. This decades-in-the-making phenomenon has helped sustain year over-year price growth for a record 124 consecutive months, according to NAR housing reports.

In his Capitol Hill comments, Yun said, “This affordability crunch is felt most acutely as we move down the income scale and by minority households… That is why housing supply must be addressed to moderate gains in home prices and rents.”

Home Prices
Higher mortgage rates and an increase in housing supply are factors that typically put downward pressure on home prices. But the market continues to be quite resilient, and costly In June, the national median listing price for single-family homes was $450,000, up 16.9% from the same time last year and more than 31% from
June 2020, according to Realtor.com.

With homes nearing half a million dollars, some buyers have stepped back from the market.

Mortgage applications dropped to the lowest level at the end of June, marking the biggest slump in 22 years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Despite some homes with higher list prices showing signs of extended time on the market, the overall lack of inventory is still leading to price gains. “Even after
reductions, prices are still higher compared to one year ago and much higher compared to before the pandemic,” Yun indicates.

Inflation And Interest Rates
Inflation eased slightly in July, which could bode well for the housing market in the months ahead, says Yun. Yun notes that interest rates, which had been consistently in the 4% to 5% range in the decade preceding COVID-19, hovered near record lows of around 3% throughout much of 2020 and 2021.

Consumer price inflation showed signs of deceleration in early summer.

Could the worst of sky-high inflation be behind Americans? Yun thinks so. By midsummer, gasoline prices began to decline, and there was more production of
apartments and single-family homes.

Yun predicts that consumer prices will pull back, encouraging the Federal Reserve policy to be less aggressive, resulting in lower mortgage rates.

The 10-year Treasury yield in mid-August stood at 2.7%. “That should translate into 30-year mortgage rates pulling back to under 5%,” Yun says. Some recent potential
home buyers who were pushed out of the market may then be able to qualify for a mortgage and a new home.

Inventory And Market Easing
There are bright spots in the market, such as gradually increasing inventory, which is good news for consumers.

Market trends point to a shift towards a more healthy market where both sellers and buyers have advantages.

Homebuyers are finding more selection and a little more time to make decisions. Sellers are adjusting to having their home on the market longer, and pricing their
home to align with the current market.

With so many variables affecting the current real estate market, let’s talk about how to accomplish your goals with your next home purchase or sale!

Sources: magazine.realtor, www.globeandmail.com, www.forbes.com